Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 79% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 70% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 59% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matt Turner: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Chris Richards: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Tyler Adams: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Tim Ream: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Alex Freeman: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Antonee Robinson: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 94% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: United States vs. Belgium - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Belgium, scheduled for July 6 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch ist diese Seite ein Plattform-Status-Snapshot, nicht eine Trading-Empfehlung. Wir listen die regulatorischen Anforderungen jeder Plattform — Polymarket (CFTC-Konflikt seit 2022), Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert, US-only), Betfair (UK-lizensiert, geo-Block in DE), Manifold (Spielgeld, keine Regulierung) — und zeigen die Live-Quote nur dort, wo wir saubere Daten haben.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung trennt sich nach regulatorischem Modell. Polymarkets on-chain Pfad ist KYC-frei für lebenslanges Volumen unter $1.500 (PolyGram-Schwelle); die Auszahlung erfolgt in USDC innerhalb Minuten. Kalshi und Betfair setzen volle KYC-Verifikation voraus — bei beiden Plattformen sind deutsche Nutzer in der Praxis durch Geo-Block ausgeschlossen.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie werden Gewinne in DE versteuert?
- Aus deutscher Steuersicht typischerweise als sonstige Einkünfte (§ 22 Nr. 3 EStG) bei Haltedauer unter einem Jahr. Über ein Jahr greift möglicherweise die Spekulationsfrist. Wir können keine Steuerberatung leisten — konsultieren Sie eine Steuerberatung für Ihren Einzelfall.
- Was passiert bei einer Steuerprüfung?
- Sie sind selbst verantwortlich für die Dokumentation Ihrer Trades. PolyGram exportiert eine vollständige Transaktions-Historie (CSV/PDF) für Steuer-Berichte. Bei deutscher Steuerprüfung müssen Sie diese Dokumente vorlegen können.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte Glücksspiel?
- Rechtlich unklar in DE. Einige Auslegungen sehen sie als 'Wetten' (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag relevant), andere als 'Termingeschäft' (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz). Bisher gibt es keine Präzedenz-Urteile spezifisch für on-chain Prediction-Markets.
- Gibt es eine Höchstgrenze für Auszahlungen?
- Keine plattform-seitige Höchstgrenze. Sie können beliebig große Beträge auszahlen, vorausgesetzt KYC ist abgeschlossen. SEPA-Bank-Auszahlungen über €15.000 werden zusätzlich für Anti-Money-Laundering geprüft (gesetzliche Pflicht für alle Plattformen).
- Was passiert wenn die Regulierung sich ändert?
- Bei einer Regulierungsänderung in Ihrer Jurisdiktion (z.B. Verbot von Prediction-Märkten) würde PolyGram nicht-mehr-zugängliche Geo-Räume blockieren und Auszahlungen weiterhin abwickeln. Ihre Gelder bleiben jederzeit auszahlbar.
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